2021-2022 Baking Ingredient Trends

Baking Trends for 2021-2022

The trend of baking ramped up during 2020 Quarantine, but where is it now? Plus, what we see shoppers moving towards in 2022.

First, let’s dive into some numbers…

Demand in Baking in the Northeast

As we head into 2022, demand in the Northeast for Natural & Specialty baking ingredients and flours is above Pre-Covid levels (+$30M) according to SPINS data. However, year over year demand is down (-$21M).

All that this means is now that people are not home as much, they are most likely not baking as much, however they are definitely baking more than they did prior to the pandemic.

Natural & Specialty Flours

Within the category, natural and specialty (including ethnic/international) flours has seen a huge growth in recent years, dominating most of the sales within that subcategory.

Conventional flours demand in the Northeast is around $59M, only growing $3M from 2 years ago. Whereas Natural/Specialty flours is driving $73M and has grown almost $11M in two years. Huge growth drivers here are brands like Bob’s Red Mill, King Arthur’s and ethnic brands like Maseca.

While wheat, corn and almond flours remain the top types in the subcategory – growth is happening in other flours like rye and tapioca.

Bob’s Red Mill is a Davidson Customer Favorite in the Baking Category

SOURCE: SPINS, TPL, NORTHEAST US CENSUS – FOOD, 52 Weeks Ending 10/3/21

What’s Up Next in Baking?

In our 5 Featured Flavor Trends, we mention novelty, comfort and health as macro trends, which spread across many categories in grocery. We can see a lot of these here in baking as well.

Continued Baking Trends…

Trends that started pre-covid and are continuing to gain momentum are plant-based, carb-conscious, sugar alternatives and lower sugar, cleaner labels and ofcourse gluten-free.

The plant-based trends in baking are mainly with dairy and fats. Egg replacers, as well as dairy free butters are showing up in recipes as substitutions. The struggle some brands are having here with substitutions is sacrificing texture and taste.

This can be seen within the low-carb and low-sugar substitutes as well. Monk fruit, stevia, and erythritol have all witnessed growth in the past few years. As of recently, Allulose seems to be getting a lot of attention, being used by many bakeries and restaurants because it offers the same functional benefits as sucrose with 10% of the calories.

Featured Davidson Vendor Sugar Alternatives

In addition to the low carb flours like almond and nut flours, there is a growth in fiber forward flours as well. Chickpea, lupin, whole grain and spelt are all gaining shelf-space as consumers look to fulfill their current dietary needs.

Within cleaner labels, Ancient Grains is one that continues to have a slow, but steady growth in this area. Flours and mixes that contain no gluten and have recognizable ingredients will continue to be a trend – in this category and many others. Food dyes and colorings is a subject that is on the rise as shoppers want natural ingredients instead of processed chemicals or artificial additives.

New trends in baking worth watching….

At Home Baristas were born as people took their love for coffee to their own kitchens during the pandemic. As consumers grew comfortable in experimenting with their morning cup of joe, so did they with accompaniments. Flavors and new treats in this area are seeing growth in baked goods like speculoos, mocha, and chai spice. y

Comfort Meets Novelty this year, combining classics with a new twist. Thanks to TikTok and this social media/digital age, consumers are getting bold and vibrant with their creations. Examples are: blue velvet cake, S’mores cookies, unicorn cupcakes)

TikTok’s biggest baking trends of 2021
Cloud Bread: 3,200,000,000 views
Baked Oats: 833,100,000 views
Churros: 757,200,000 views
Cake Pops: 612,300,000 views
Mug Cake: 530,400,000 views
Sugar Cookies: 471,900,000 views
Cinnamon Roll: 324,100,000 views

Grains with a Purpose look to prioritize products grown with farming processes that help address soil health. Items like pasta, cereal, and grains. Kernza, a perennial grain developed by The Land Institute that helps with nutrient cycling and overall soil ecology.

Back to What’s Trending Page to Discover More Trends

5 Ways Plant-Based is Winning – according to Instacart

A recent “Plant Power” report from Instacart stated that 1 in 3 users of the delivery service have bought an alternative meat or milk product. This is no surprise to the trends we have been seeing over the past two years, but some of the findings we found interesting (and have listed below) are areas of opportunity in retail stores in the Northeast.

1 – WHAT PROMPTED THE STUDY?

Retailers take note. As online grocery shopping continues to grow – what prompted Instacart to look into the trends surrounding plant-based meat and dairy items was the search increase on the platform around terms associated with “plant powered” foods.

Searches like ‘plant-based,’ ‘meatless,’ vegetarian,’ and ‘vegan’ took off as consumers looked for healthy at-home meals during 2020 lockdowns. And as we come out of the pandemic — searches continue in popularity, growing even more in 2021.”

2 – OAT MILK IS TRENDING AS A TOP COMPETITOR IN THE NORTHEAST STATES

Oat Milk is wildly growing as “the” preferred alternative, right next to almond milk. At Davidson, we have seen an increase in demand of our shelf stable Planet Oat since bringing the product on board in 2021.

3 – WHAT ARE INSTACART USERS TRYING FOR THE FIRST TIME?

If 100 Instacart customers add a plant-based item to their cart for the first time…

• 20 choose almond milk
• 17 choose dairy-free cheese
• 5 choose tofu
• 5 choose veggie burgers
• 4 choose oat milk
• 3 choose dairy-free yogurt, almond butter
• 2 choose coconut milk.

4 – MEAT EATERS ALSO BUY MEAT ALTERNATIVES

(43%) of Instacart customers who buy plant-based meat also buy conventional meat

Whether you have a vegan/vegetarian area in your store, or you’ve already incorporated meat alternatives into your meat section, this report shows that households are buying both. This goes right along with the flexitarian trend where shoppers arn’t completely giving up meat, but are experimenting with ways to incorporate more plants and plant protein into their diets.

5 – WHAT’S INSTACARTS NEXT PREDICTION?

Instacart data reveals that while also searching for plant based meat and milk alternatives, shoppers were showing interest in—jackfruit. Not only has jackfruit seen growth on Instacart, but also in scan data as well.

Instacart customers adopted jackfruit at a 50% faster clip in 2020, and growth continues into 2021.

At Davidson, we’ve seen increased interest in The Jackfruit Company’s offerings in the perishable section, as seen below.

From Laurentia Romaniuk, Instacart’s Trends Expert Instacart – “We expect consumers will diversify their summer grills with more plant proteins this year. If jackfruit adoption rates continue to grow at the rate they did during the pandemic, a lot more consumers will be pairing pulled jackfruit with their vegan sausages and plant-based burgers this barbeque season.”

Full article from Instacart: https://www.instacart.com/company/blog/company-updates/plant-power-how-meat-and-milk-alternatives-are-taking-over-our-carts

Trend Watch on Cookies

FEATURED CATEGORY: Cookies

January 2021 – Cookies will always be an indulgence and a treat for shoppers, but as consumers continue down the path of wanting healthier and cleaner options, the category is evolving with innovative changes as well.

Plant-based and Vegan friendly sweets, as well as lower sugar and keto-friendly items are hitting the shelves. Gluten-free is one of the largest growing attributes right now in cookies, supporting consumers with their health goals.

Take a look at some of the top brands in Natural & Specialty below. Those highlighted in green are featured Davidson offerings.

North East Market

*Source: SPINSscan Conventional Channel, Northeast Region, TPL – 52 weeks ending 11.29.2020

Trend Watch on Soups & Broths

TREND WATCH

FEATURED CATEGORY: Soups & Broths

September 2020

The soup category has seen growth of over $90 million (Source: SPINs Data, Northeast US Region, week ending 3.22.20).

Ready to Eat Soups (canned and single serve) and Broths account for 75% of the demand in the entire category. Areas where there has been growth have been in the ethnic soups like Miso and Ramen, as well as On-the-go type instant soups and cups of soup. Both of these areas are on trend with what we are seeing in some other categories. Consumers are looking to other regions across the world for new tastes and meals, as well as convenience with on-the-go options.

In addition to the flavor and convenience trend, Broths have also taken a front seat in the soup category due to their ability to provide additional health benefits. Vegetable broths have also witnessed and increase in demand as the plant-based trend continues to grow.

Below we’ve highlighted some additional trends, as well as the top Natural & Specialty Brands in both the Northeast and also the Western Region. The brands highlighted in green are available at Davidson.

North East Market

West Coast Market

Davidson supports the C&S West Coast Market Natural, Organic & Specialty department. Here are the trending soups in the Western Region.

trending soups in grocery

Trend Watch: Baking Mixes July 2020

TREND WATCH

FEATURED CATEGORY: Baking & Pancake Mixes

July 2020

The baking category as a whole has seen growth of $122 million (16.5%) in the past 52 weeks (Source: SPINs Data, Northeast US Region, week ending 5.17.20).

Baking & Pancake Mixes account for $33 million of that growth, with most of it coming from Baking Ingredients and Flour. There are some definite trends in Natural & Specialty within mixes, especially with the recent surge in quarantine baking, that we can see from the data. Below you can see the top 10 mixes and their growth year over year.

Natural & Specialty

Diet and health focused brands are emerging with gluten-free mixes (Glutino), keto and paleo friendly options – as well as recognizable ingredient lists. Specific brands like Kodiak Cakes are continuing to grow and expand their flavors here as consumers dive into “protein pancakes”. Other emerging and growing brands in the baking category like Lakanto – have developed mixes that include their notorious ingredient – monk fruit. Monk Fruit and other sugar and low calorie sweetener alternatives like Stevia are growing in demand.

top types of baking mixes

North East Markets

Check out the trends and featured Davidson assortment here: CLICK HERE

Trend Watch on Wellness & Snack Bars

TREND WATCH

FEATURED CATEGORY: Wellness & Snack Bars

February 2020

Snack and Wellness Bars are seeing growth in Natural and Specialty, while more Conventional brands decline. Consumers are looking for on-the go, filling, healthy and clean ingredients within this area. Functional ingredients like chia seeds, protein powder, pre and pro-biotics, collagen as well as super foods are strongly making their way into this category. Traditional granola/breakfast bars are being substituted for healthier options, but the sub categories are merging. We will also see this category begin to trend off shelf and into refrigerator and frozen areas. As ingredients become healthier with no-gluten and include components that are perishable, retailers will need to make room for them – right along with Ready to Drink Functional Beverages.

Below we’ve included our featured brands that are growing within the category, as well a featured listing of items from our assortments. We have both Northeast and Western US information below.

North East Markets

Download the full, printable version with popular Davidson items – CLICK HERE

West Coast Markets

Download the full, printable version with popular C&S items – CLICK HERE

Trend Watch on Baking Supplies – November 2019

TREND WATCH

FEATURED CATEGORY: Baking Supplies

November 2019

The demand of the Baking Supplies category in both the Northeast and Western US Regions is being carried in growth by Natural & Specialty brands. Consumers are looking for cleaner ingredients, and health focused products like almond flour, whole wheat, coconut, xanthum gum, arrowroot and plant-based options (egg replacers) are growing across the sub-categories. Trending diets like paleo, keto, low-carb, gluten-free and dairy-free are without a doubt contributing to the success of many items within baking, as shoppers revamp recipes to fit their needs.

Below we’ve included our featured brands that are growing within the category, as well a featured listing of items from our assortments. We have both Northeast and Western US information below.

trends in baking supplies

North East Markets

Natural & Specialty brands, which have increased by $9M in sales to offset the $8.5M loss from Conventional. Flours grew the most with a $6M increase in sales, followed by Ingredients at $1.4M. Baking and pancake mixes arn’t experiencing growth as categories, but there are rising trends within them to note.

Download the full, printable version with popular Davidson items – CLICK HERE

baking supplies trends west coast

West Coast Markets

The demand of the Baking Supplies category is thriving across all subcategories on the West Coast. Natural & Specialty are carrying more than double the growth of Conventional brands with $13M vs. $5.5M YOY. Flours and baking ingredients grew the most at $6M each, while baking and pancake mixes grew almost $3M each.

Download the full, printable version with popular C&S items – CLICK HERE

2019 Fall Davidson Food Show

Thank you for all exhibitors and customers that helped make our show a success!

Trend Watch on Candy – October 2019

TREND WATCH

FEATURED CATEGORY: CANDY (Chocolate & Non-Chocolate)

October 2019

In preparation for Halloween this month, we took a look at retail trends in the Candy Category. As new brands innovate to provide consumers with creative flavors and mouth watering recipes – the category itself remains relatively flat in the Northeast with Natural and Specialty carrying the growth, and is up 3.4% in the Western US with Natural & Specialty contributing to half the growth. As the category continues to grow, it is clear that consumers are looking for healthier, cleaner, and functional ingredients for their sweet treat choices.

Below we’ve included brands that are growing within the category in both the Northeast and the West Coast regions, as well as featured items from the respective inventories for you to shop. We’ve chosen to share the top and growing brands in Natural and Specialty!

october trends in candy

North East Markets

The information in this Trend Watch is reflective of the Northeast Region, where the overall category has $972M in sales over the past 52 weeks. Conventional brands are losing demand in the category, but Natural and Specialty/Wellness chocolate and non-chocolate items are seeing growth of 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively.

Delicious brands like Darrell Lea and Yum Earth, which offer gummy and licorice like sweets, are popular with consumers, but chocolate treats are still the star of this category with over $718M in sales.

Download the full, printable version with popular Davidson items – CLICK HERE

west coast candy category trends

West Coast Markets

The information in this Trend Watch is reflective of the West Coast Region,

The information in this Trend Watch is reflective of the Western US Region, where the overall category has $1.5B in sales in Chocolate and Non-Chocolate items over the past 52 weeks.

Delicious brands like Darrell Lea, which offer licorice like sweets, are popular with consumers, but chocolate treats are still the star of this category with over $1.04 billion in sales.

Download the full, printable version with popular C&S items – CLICK HERE

Food Show SPINS Partnership to Highlight NY Market Growing Grocery Brands

SPINS & Davidson Specialty Foods partner to highlight popular brands in the NY Market!

We were excited to have our friends from SPINS (A wellness-focused data technology company) at our Davidson Holiday Food Show on September 5th. We partnered with them to help bring into the spotlight some of the trending brands within the NY Market, where many retailers that were attending are located. Brands and vendors that attended our show were highlighted in a special report that SPINS put together, along with some information on popular skus in growing categories like Pet Food and Sustainable, Environment-Friendly cleaning supplies.

Check out the report below for these Davidson’s Brands that New York consumers are loving!

Spins NY data page 2 spins NY data page 1